TITLE: Visayas Grid Under Yellow Alert Anew Amid Chronic Power Shortages
The Visayas region’s electricity grid was placed under a "yellow alert" across several hours last Friday and Saturday, signifying critically thin operating reserves and renewed anxieties over the reliability of power supply for millions of Filipinos. The National Grid Corporation of the Philippines (NGCP) issued the warnings on June 5 and June 6, directly responding to a recurring vulnerability in the energy infrastructure that has persisted for weeks.
This latest round of alerts underscores a deepening energy crisis in the Visayas, where industries, businesses, and households face the constant threat of service interruptions. A yellow alert, while not a guaranteed blackout, signals that the grid is operating on razor-thin margins, highly susceptible to unexpected plant breakdowns that could quickly escalate into widespread power outages, disrupting daily life and hindering economic activity across a vital region.
On Friday, June 5, the yellow alert was initially declared from 5 p.m. to 8 p.m., subsequently adjusted to span from 4 p.m. to 8 p.m., and in some advisories, even earlier from 3 p.m. to 4 p.m. This critical situation emerged as forecasted peak demand reached 2,379 megawatts (MW) against an available capacity of only 2,608 MW, leaving a narrow buffer. The precarious state continued into Saturday, June 6, with another yellow alert in effect from 5 p.m. to 7 p.m., where the available capacity was 2,640 MW against a peak demand of 2,493 MW, further illustrating the grid’s strained operational limits.
According to the NGCP, the primary cause behind these repeated alerts is the prolonged unavailability and reduced operational capability of numerous power plants across the Visayas. On Friday, a staggering 25 power plants were reported to be on forced outage, with an additional 11 operating at derated capacities. This collective deficit removed an estimated 929.8 MW from the grid’s potential supply, significantly contributing to the power reserve shortfall.
Among the key contributors to this substantial capacity loss were major coal-fired power plants, including Therma Visayas Inc. (TVI) Units 1 and 2, and Panay Energy Development Corp. (PEDC) Unit 3, all of which have experienced extended outages. The absence of these large-scale generators creates a cascading effect, forcing the grid to rely on smaller, less consistent sources and pushing the entire system closer to the brink.
Saturday’s scenario was equally challenging, with 897.6 MW of capacity rendered unavailable. This was attributed to a complex array of issues: five plants had been on forced outage since June 2026, eight since May 2026, one since March 2026, and several others had been offline since as far back as 2021. Compounding these long-standing problems were 11 plants running at derated capacities, struggling to deliver their full output.
The cumulative impact of these prolonged and recent shutdowns has left the Visayas power system in a state of perpetual instability. A yellow alert, therefore, serves as a crucial early warning, indicating that the operating margin – the indispensable buffer between available generation capacity and projected demand – is insufficient to meet the grid's contingency requirements. This means the system has limited reserves to manage sudden increases in demand or unexpected failures of additional generating units.
Without adequate reserves, any further disruption risks escalating rapidly into a "red alert," a more severe condition that necessitates rotational power interruptions, commonly referred to as brownouts, to prevent a total system collapse. The Visayas grid has become worryingly accustomed to such warnings in recent months, with the latest declarations forming part of a pattern that has seen the region endure weeks of tight power supply and actual outages.
This persistent instability has not gone unnoticed by policymakers. Senate President pro tempore Sherwin Gatchalian has publicly called for a comprehensive inquiry into the frequent red and yellow alerts impacting both the Luzon and Visayas grids. Through Senate Resolution 425, Senator Gatchalian highlighted the scale of the problem, noting that the Visayas grid alone has accumulated approximately 93 interval hours under yellow alert and about 22 interval hours under red alert in recent periods.
Senator Gatchalian’s call for an investigation aims to ascertain the true state of the country's power supply, scrutinize grid reliability, and hold accountable any stakeholders responsible for the persistent issues. He also emphasized the ominous projections of a strengthening El Niño phenomenon in the latter half of the year, a climate pattern known to exacerbate power supply gaps due to heightened demand for cooling and potential adverse effects on hydropower generation.
The Department of Energy (DOE) has acknowledged the protracted nature of the power challenges in the Visayas and has been actively exploring various interventions. These include plans to fast-track ancillary services, which provide additional reserves to stabilize the grid, and to reactivate several coal-fired plants that are currently offline.
While some generating units, such as KSPC Unit 2, have reportedly returned online, others crucial to the grid’s stability face longer repair timelines. PEDC Unit 3 is not expected to resume operations until July 3, while TVI’s units are slated for a late August return. This staggered restoration schedule indicates that the Visayas grid will likely continue to operate under strained conditions for the foreseeable future, making it susceptible to further alerts and potential interruptions as demand remains high.
The ongoing challenges in the Visayas underscore a critical and urgent need for robust, long-term solutions to bolster the region’s energy security. The economic growth and the daily lives of millions of inhabitants across the Visayas are inextricably linked to a reliable power supply. The current dependence on a fleet of aging or frequently malfunctioning plants, coupled with a steadily rising demand, paints a challenging picture for the region’s energy future.
Energy experts frequently point to the imperative of diversifying the energy mix, reducing reliance on single-source or aging infrastructure, and investing significantly in new generation capacity. Equally important is the upgrading of existing transmission infrastructure to ensure that power, once generated, can be efficiently and reliably distributed across the grid. Without decisive action and accelerated development of new and reliable power sources, the recurring yellow alerts in the Visayas may continue to be a grim forecast.
The coming months, with their anticipated climate challenges and sustained demand, will undoubtedly test the resilience of the Visayas grid and the efficacy of current energy strategies. The region’s ability to secure a stable power supply will be a key determinant of its continued development and the well-being of its population.