Tropical Depression Luis is barreling toward the Philippine mainland with authorities bracing for a potential landfall over Northern Luzon sometime Monday night or in the early morning hours of Tuesday, August 4, 2026. The storm has been moving sluggishly over waters east of Aurora, keeping millions of Filipinos on alert as weather agencies closely monitor its erratic behavior.
The Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) placed Luis at roughly 130 kilometers east-southeast of Casiguran, Aurora as of 4:00 a.m. Monday, August 3. According to PAGASA's 5:00 a.m. advisory bulletin, the tropical depression was packing maximum sustained winds of 55 kilometers per hour close to its center, with gusts reaching as high as 70 km/h. The weather bureau added that strong winds radiate outward up to 240 kilometers from the storm's core.
Tropical Cyclone Wind Signal No. 1 Raised Across Northern and Central Luzon
PAGASA has placed several provinces and areas under Tropical Cyclone Wind Signal No. 1, which warns of potentially strong winds expected within 36 hours. The agency listed the following areas currently under the signal:
- Central and eastern portions of Cagayan, including Tuguegarao City and Aparri
- Isabela
- Quirino
- Eastern and southern portions of Apayao
- Eastern portions of Kalinga, including Tabuk City
- Mountain Province and Ifugao
- Northern portion of Aurora, including Baler and Casiguran
- Polillo Islands
- Northern portion of Camarines Norte, including Daet
PAGASA noted that communities within these signal areas should brace for minimal to minor wind damage, though exposed coastal and upland settlements may experience stronger, localized gusts than the surrounding areas.
Southwest Monsoon Extends Hazards Well Beyond Signal Zones
The effects of Luis are not confined to its signal areas. PAGASA warned that the Southwest Monsoon, intensified by the outer periphery of Luis, will drive strong to gale-force gusts across most of Luzon and the Visayas on both Monday and Tuesday. In Mindanao, provinces including Lanao del Norte, Misamis Occidental, Camiguin, Surigao del Norte, Dinagat Islands, Sarangani, Davao Occidental, and Davao Oriental are similarly expected to feel the monsoon's punch.
Come Wednesday, August 5, PAGASA forecast that gusty conditions would linger over most of Luzon and the Visayas, as well as the Zamboanga Peninsula, Northern Mindanao, and portions of the Caraga and Davao regions. The weather agency directed the public to Weather Advisory No. 6, also released at 5:00 a.m. Monday, for the detailed rainfall outlook tied to the combined influence of Luis and the Southwest Monsoon.
Mariners Warned of Rough Seas Along Eastern Coastlines
Seafarers have been placed on heightened alert as PAGASA projected moderate to rough sea conditions in several key stretches of Philippine waters. Waves of up to 2.5 meters are expected to batter the eastern seaboard of Isabela and Davao Oriental, as well as the northeastern coastline of Aurora. Wave heights of up to 2.0 meters are forecast over the waters off Batanes, Babuyan Islands, mainland Cagayan, Pangasinan, Polillo Islands, Catanduanes, Northern Samar, and portions of Bicol, Caraga, and Davao.
The weather bureau strongly advised operators of motorbancas and small watercraft to either take precautionary measures before setting sail or to avoid going out to sea altogether until conditions improve.
Storm Expected to Make Sharp Turn After Landfall
PAGASA outlined a projected track for Luis that has the storm moving on a generally northwestward path before crossing over or passing close to Northern Luzon late Monday night or in the predawn hours of Tuesday. After making landfall, the tropical depression is expected to execute a sharp turn toward the east-northeast and gradually move away from the Philippine landmass.
The weather bureau was careful to note, however, that the forecast track carries a high degree of uncertainty and could be revised in future bulletins as new data becomes available. Luis is expected to maintain tropical depression strength for most of the forecast period before weakening into a remnant low by Wednesday.
PAGASA added that the remnant system from Luis is anticipated to be fully absorbed by the circulation of Super Typhoon Dolphin, a powerful cyclone currently being monitored outside the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR). According to PAGASA, Dolphin is unlikely to enter PAR but is expected to continue strengthening the Southwest Monsoon over the archipelago.
Luis Marks the 12th Cyclone of 2026, First of August
PAGASA confirmed that Luis is the 12th named tropical cyclone to form within or enter the Philippine Area of Responsibility in 2026 and the first to be recorded for the month of August. Looking ahead, the agency projected that between two and four additional tropical cyclones may still develop or move into PAR before August comes to a close.
Amid the threats posed by Luis, PAGASA called on local disaster risk reduction and management offices across affected regions to activate contingency measures and ensure their communities are prepared. Residents living in areas prone to flooding, storm surges, or landslides were specifically urged to comply with any evacuation orders issued by local government officials. The agency's subsequent bulletin was set for release at 8:00 a.m. Monday, August 3.
By the Numbers
- 130 km — distance of Luis east-southeast of Casiguran, Aurora as of 4:00 a.m., August 3
- 55 km/h — maximum sustained winds near Luis's center
- 70 km/h — peak wind gusts recorded from the storm
- 240 km — outward extent of strong winds from the center of Luis
- 2.5 meters — maximum wave height forecast along the eastern seaboards of Isabela, Davao Oriental, and northeastern Aurora
- 12th — Luis's designation as the Philippines' 12th tropical cyclone of 2026
- 2 to 4 — additional cyclones PAGASA expects to form or enter PAR during August
Why This Matters
With PAGASA warning of a possible landfall over Northern Luzon as early as Monday night, TD Luis presents a direct and immediate danger to communities across a wide belt of the country, triggering wind signal advisories and rough seas warnings simultaneously. The storm's interaction with the Southwest Monsoon significantly broadens its impact zone, affecting not only areas under formal signals but also provinces across the Visayas and parts of Mindanao through enhanced monsoon conditions. PAGASA's explicit caution that its forecast track remains highly uncertain makes continuous monitoring essential, as the storm's behavior could shift in ways that alter which communities bear the brunt of its effects.
Source: breakingnewsnegros.com