Late Saturday night, November 7, 2026, Philippine weather authority PAGASA released Tropical Cyclone Advisory No. 1 for Severe Tropical Storm CEMPAKA — a storm currently churning well east of the country but forecast to rapidly intensify and briefly enter Philippine waters before curving away.
Position and Current Strength
As of 10:00 PM Saturday, PAGASA placed CEMPAKA's center at coordinates 20.7°N, 141.4°E, roughly 2,035 kilometres east of Extreme Northern Luzon — entirely outside the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR). The storm was moving west-northwestward at 20 km/h when the advisory was released at 11:00 PM, according to PAGASA.
At the time of the advisory, PAGASA reported that CEMPAKA was generating maximum sustained winds of 95 km/h near its center, with gusts reaching up to 115 km/h and a central pressure of 996 hPa. Storm-force winds extended as far as 380 kilometres outward from the center.
Rapid Intensification Forecast Over the Coming Hours
PAGASA's forecast track indicates the storm will strengthen quickly. By 8:00 AM on Sunday, November 8, the agency projects CEMPAKA will have crossed the typhoon threshold, carrying maximum sustained winds of 120 km/h at a position roughly 1,775 km east of Extreme Northern Luzon — still outside PAR.
Further strengthening is expected by 8:00 PM that same Sunday, with PAGASA forecasting maximum sustained winds of 140 km/h and the storm located approximately 1,495 km east of Extreme Northern Luzon.
Peak intensity is forecast for 8:00 AM on Monday, November 9, when PAGASA projects maximum sustained winds of 155 km/h at a position around 1,335 km east-northeast of Extreme Northern Luzon. The agency forecasts a gradual weakening beginning after that point.
Brief Entry Into PAR, Then a Northward Turn
PAGASA said CEMPAKA is expected to cross into the Philippine Area of Responsibility sometime between Sunday evening, November 8, and Monday morning, November 9. Upon entry into PAR, the storm will be given the local name SAMUEL.
However, PAGASA noted the system's stay inside PAR will be short-lived. The agency projects the cyclone will begin curving north-northeastward by Monday afternoon or evening, then exit through PAR's northeastern boundary.
By 8:00 PM on Tuesday, November 10, the 72-hour forecast puts CEMPAKA at approximately 2,045 km east-northeast of Extreme Northern Luzon with winds of 140 km/h — already back outside PAR, according to PAGASA. The 96-hour outlook for 8:00 PM on Wednesday, November 11 shows the storm at 2,770 km east-northeast of Extreme Northern Luzon, with maximum sustained winds of 130 km/h, continuing on a northeast track.
No Direct Land Impact Anticipated
PAGASA stated that CEMPAKA is expected to remain over the open Philippine Sea throughout its track, far from land, and is not forecast to directly affect weather conditions or sea states across the country.
Despite the storm's offshore path, PAGASA warned that the Northeast Monsoon will produce moderate to rough seas along the seaboards of Northern and Central Luzon within the next 24 hours. Beginning Tuesday, November 10, very rough seas may affect Northern Luzon's seaboards, the agency added.
Gale Warning for Northern Luzon Seaboards Under Consideration
A Gale Warning may be issued as early as Sunday, November 8, or Monday, November 9, PAGASA advised, due to the combined effects of the Northeast Monsoon and CEMPAKA's influence on the seaboards of Northern Luzon. The agency called on the public and local disaster risk reduction and management (DRRM) offices to keep monitoring official updates.
Next Update Set for Sunday Morning
Barring an intermediate bulletin, PAGASA said the next Tropical Cyclone Advisory on CEMPAKA will be issued at 11:00 AM on Sunday, November 8, 2026. The agency's official advisories are posted on the PAGASA website.
Source: PAGASA / DOST