Typhoon Cempaka is on track to graze the edge of the Philippine Area of Responsibility on Monday, November 9, without threatening any landmass, the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) said in Tropical Cyclone Advisory No. 3A, released at 5:00 PM on November 8, 2026.
Position and Strength as of Sunday Afternoon
PAGASA reported that at 4:00 PM on November 8, Typhoon Cempaka was centered roughly 1,600 kilometers east of Extreme Northern Luzon — well beyond PAR limits — at coordinates 22.1°N, 137.2°E, tracking west-northwestward at 20 kilometers per hour.
The state weather bureau said the typhoon was sustaining maximum winds of 120 km/h near the center, with gusts reaching up to 150 km/h. Central pressure was recorded at 980 hectopascals, and tropical cyclone-force winds extended up to 280 kilometers from the storm's core, according to PAGASA.
Storm to Enter PAR, Then Quickly Turn Away
According to the advisory, Cempaka is forecast to continue its west-northwestward movement until it crosses into the PAR on Monday morning, November 9, at which time PAGASA will assign it the local name Samuel. Its stay within Philippine-monitored waters is expected to be brief.
PAGASA said the storm will then curve north-northeastward by Monday afternoon, exiting through the PAR's northeastern boundary either by Monday evening or in the early hours of Tuesday, November 10. Throughout this period, the system is projected to remain entirely over the open Philippine Sea, far from any inhabited area.
Strengthening Before a Gradual Decline
PAGASA's 120-hour forecast table shows the storm continuing to gain strength in the short term. By 2:00 AM Monday, November 9 — the 12-hour forecast mark — maximum sustained winds are expected to reach 140 km/h as Cempaka moves west-northwestward at 20 km/h, still outside the PAR.
At the 24-hour mark — 2:00 PM on Monday — the storm is forecast to be located 1,330 km east-northeast of Extreme Northern Luzon, with winds climbing to 150 km/h and movement slowing to 10 km/h on a northwestward heading, according to PAGASA.
The 36-hour forecast projects maximum sustained winds peaking at 155 km/h by 2:00 AM on Tuesday, November 10. A weakening trend then begins: by 2:00 PM Tuesday, the 48-hour mark, winds are expected to ease to 150 km/h, with the storm moving east-northeast at 25 km/h approximately 1,720 km from Extreme Northern Luzon.
PAGASA's extended forecast shows continued weakening through the week. By 2:00 PM Wednesday, November 11 (72-hour mark), Cempaka is expected to have degraded into a Severe Tropical Storm packing 110 km/h winds, situated 2,450 km east-northeast of Extreme Northern Luzon. At the 96-hour point — 2:00 PM Thursday, November 12 — the system is projected to further weaken to Tropical Storm strength at 75 km/h, around 3,015 km from northern Luzon. By 2:00 PM Friday, November 13, the final 120-hour forecast places the remnant as a low-pressure area with no typhoon classification, drifting eastward at 10 km/h some 3,230 km east-northeast of Extreme Northern Luzon.
No Wind Signals Raised; Rough Seas Possible for Luzon
PAGASA stated that Cempaka "will remain over the Philippine Sea, far from land, and is not expected to directly affect the weather or sea conditions in the country." As of the advisory's issuance, no Tropical Cyclone Wind Signal had been raised anywhere in the Philippines.
Despite the storm staying offshore, PAGASA warned that the Northeast Monsoon will generate moderate to rough seas along the seaboards of Northern and Central Luzon within the next 24 hours. Very rough seas may develop along the seaboards of Northern Luzon beginning Tuesday, November 10, and the weather bureau added that a Gale Warning will likely be issued by Monday, November 9.
DRRM Offices Urged to Keep Monitoring
PAGASA advised the public and disaster risk reduction and management (DRRM) offices to continue monitoring official updates on the tropical cyclone. A follow-up advisory was scheduled for 11:00 PM on November 8, with the possibility of an earlier issuance should the storm's behavior change significantly.
The advisory was prepared by the Weather Division of the DOST-PAGASA Weather and Flood Forecasting Center in Quezon City, the agency noted.
Source: PAGASA/DOST