Typhoon Cempaka is on course to clip the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) for a short time beginning Monday morning, November 9, 2026, then quickly veer away without bringing any direct weather disturbance to the country's land areas, the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) announced in Tropical Cyclone Advisory No. 4, released at 11:00 PM on Sunday, November 8, 2026.
Position and Current Strength of the Storm
At 10:00 PM on Sunday, November 8, PAGASA placed Cempaka's center at coordinates 22.6°N, 136.2°E — roughly 1,500 kilometers east of Extreme Northern Luzon and still well outside the PAR. The state weather bureau reported that maximum sustained winds near the center had reached 120 kilometers per hour (km/h), with gusts of up to 150 km/h and a central pressure of 980 hectopascals. Tropical cyclone-force winds were extending up to 300 kilometers from the storm's center. At the time of the advisory, Cempaka was tracking west northwestward at 20 km/h.
Projected Path: PAR Entry and Quick Exit
According to PAGASA, Cempaka is expected to enter the PAR on Monday morning, at which time it will be given the local name Samuel. The typhoon's stay inside the PAR is forecast to be brief.
The 12-hour forecast places the storm at about 1,375 km east-northeast of Extreme Northern Luzon by 8:00 AM on Monday, November 9, with maximum sustained winds strengthening to 140 km/h, still moving west northwestward.
By 8:00 PM on Monday, PAGASA's advisory describes Cempaka as moving "north northwestward slowly" and nearly stalling, while winds peak at 150 km/h — still roughly 1,375 km east-northeast of Extreme Northern Luzon. The storm is then forecast to curve north-northwestward by Monday afternoon, shift east-northeastward, and exit through the PAR's northeastern boundary by Monday evening or early Tuesday morning, November 10.
Peak Intensity Then a Gradual Decline
PAGASA's extended forecast shows the storm reaching its peak at 150 km/h sustained winds on Monday before a weakening trend sets in starting Tuesday, November 10. By 8:00 AM on Tuesday, Cempaka is expected to be 1,575 km east-northeast of Extreme Northern Luzon — already outside the PAR again — still at 150 km/h while moving east-northeastward at 15 km/h.
The state weather bureau's advisory outlines the following projected weakening from that point:
- 8:00 PM, Tuesday, November 10: 1,855 km east-northeast of Extreme Northern Luzon; 140 km/h; moving east-northeast at 25 km/h
- 8:00 AM, Wednesday, November 11: 2,175 km east-northeast of Extreme Northern Luzon; 130 km/h; moving east-northeast at 25 km/h
- 8:00 PM, Wednesday, November 11: 2,510 km east-northeast of Extreme Northern Luzon; downgraded to Severe Tropical Storm at 100 km/h; moving east-northeast at 30 km/h
- 8:00 PM, Thursday, November 12: 2,965 km east-northeast of Extreme Northern Luzon; further downgraded to Tropical Storm at 65 km/h; moving east at 20 km/h
- 8:00 PM, Friday, November 13: 3,220 km east-northeast of Extreme Northern Luzon; forecast to degrade into a low-pressure area; moving east at 10 km/h
No Landfall Threat; Amihan to Stir Rough Seas
PAGASA stated in its advisory that Cempaka "will remain over the Philippine Sea and is not expected to directly affect the weather or sea conditions in the country." No tropical cyclone wind signals have been raised over any part of the Philippines.
Separately, PAGASA warned that the Northeast Monsoon — locally called the Amihan — will generate moderate to rough seas along the seaboards of Northern and Central Luzon within the next 24 hours. Very rough seas are expected to develop along the seaboards of Northern Luzon by Tuesday, November 10. The weather bureau added that a Gale Warning will likely be issued by Monday, November 9, covering those areas. Mariners and operators of small seacraft are urged to watch subsequent advisories closely.
Guidance for the Public and Disaster Offices
PAGASA advised disaster risk reduction and management offices and the general public to keep track of further updates on Cempaka. The agency noted that the next scheduled tropical cyclone advisory will be released at 11:00 AM on Monday, November 9, unless an intermediate bulletin becomes necessary.
The advisory was prepared by PAGASA's Weather Division at the Weather and Flood Forecasting Center in Quezon City, under the Department of Science and Technology. The agency can be reached at (+632) 8284-0800 extension 4800.
Source: PAGASA — Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration