No wind signals were raised anywhere in the Philippines even as Typhoon Samuel (international name: Cempaka) entered the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) Monday morning, November 9, 2026 — and the weather bureau expects the storm to leave the country's weather domain before daybreak Tuesday without touching Philippine land.
The Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) released Tropical Cyclone Bulletin No. 1 at 11:00 AM Monday, confirming that no Tropical Cyclone Wind Signal is in effect across any part of the Philippines.
Storm Location and Current Strength
At 10:00 AM Monday, PAGASA placed the center of Typhoon Samuel approximately 1,370 kilometers east northeast of Extreme Northern Luzon, at coordinates 23.9°N, 134.7°E. The storm had maximum sustained winds of 120 km/h near its center, gusts reaching up to 150 km/h, a central pressure of 980 hPa, and tropical cyclone-force winds extending up to 300 kilometers outward from the center.
Forecast Movement and Intensity
According to PAGASA, Samuel is expected to move north northeastward slowly over the next 12 hours before exiting the PAR sometime between Monday night and early Tuesday morning, November 10. The typhoon will then accelerate generally east northeastward over the open Pacific Ocean.
The agency said Samuel may reach peak intensity by Monday evening or early Tuesday morning. After that, unfavorable atmospheric conditions are expected to trigger a steady weakening trend.
By 8:00 PM on Wednesday, November 11 — the end of PAGASA's 60-hour forecast window — Samuel is projected to be 2,845 kilometers east northeast of Extreme Northern Luzon, well outside the PAR, with maximum sustained winds reduced to 95 km/h and downgraded to severe tropical storm category.
Track and Intensity Projections
PAGASA's Bulletin No. 1 included the following track and intensity forecast points:
- 8:00 PM, Monday, November 9 — 1,435 km east northeast of Extreme Northern Luzon (outside PAR); maximum sustained winds 140 km/h; Typhoon; moving north northeastward slowly
- 8:00 AM, Tuesday, November 10 — 1,675 km east northeast of Extreme Northern Luzon (outside PAR); maximum sustained winds 150 km/h; Typhoon; moving east northeastward at 20 km/h
- 8:00 PM, Tuesday, November 10 — 2,010 km east northeast of Extreme Northern Luzon (outside PAR); maximum sustained winds 130 km/h; Typhoon; moving eastward at 30 km/h
- 8:00 AM, Wednesday, November 11 — 2,405 km east northeast of Extreme Northern Luzon (outside PAR); maximum sustained winds 110 km/h; Severe Tropical Storm; moving east northeastward at 35 km/h
- 8:00 PM, Wednesday, November 11 — 2,845 km east northeast of Extreme Northern Luzon (outside PAR); maximum sustained winds 95 km/h; Severe Tropical Storm; moving east northeastward at 35 km/h
Northeast Monsoon to Bring Strong Winds Despite No Direct Threat
PAGASA said Samuel is "less likely to directly affect the weather condition of the country throughout the forecast period." Even so, the Northeast Monsoon — enhanced by the typhoon's circulation — will produce strong to gale-force gusts across wide swaths of the country.
Areas to experience these monsoon-driven winds on Monday include most of Luzon and Visayas, Dinagat Islands, Surigao del Norte, Misamis Oriental, Camiguin, Lanao del Norte, Misamis Occidental, Zamboanga del Norte, Davao Oriental, Davao Occidental, and Sarangani, particularly in coastal and upland zones exposed to wind. PAGASA said the same conditions are expected to persist through Tuesday, November 10, and into Wednesday, November 11, covering most of Luzon and Visayas and several areas in Mindanao.
Rough to Very Rough Seas Off Northern Luzon
PAGASA warned of very rough to rough seas along the northern coastlines of Luzon, with the most hazardous wave conditions concentrated around Batanes and the Babuyan Islands. The agency's 24-hour sea condition outlook gives the following wave height forecasts:
- Up to 5.5 m — Northern seaboard of Batanes
- Up to 5.0 m — Northern seaboard of Babuyan Islands; remaining seaboard of Batanes
- Up to 4.5 m — Northern seaboard of Ilocos Norte; northeastern seaboard of mainland Cagayan; remaining seaboard of Babuyan Islands
- Up to 4.0 m — Seaboards of Isabela and northern Aurora; northern seaboard of mainland Cagayan; northern and eastern seaboards of Polillo Islands; remaining seaboard of Ilocos Norte
- Up to 3.5 m — Seaboards of Ilocos Sur, Isabela, and northern Quezon; northwestern seaboard of Pangasinan; northern seaboards of Camarines Norte and Kalayaan Islands; remaining seaboard of Aurora
- Up to 3.0 m — Northern seaboard of La Union; northern seaboard of Camarines Norte; northern and eastern seaboards of Catanduanes; northeastern seaboards of Northern Samar and Eastern Samar
The weather bureau advised all mariners to remain in port or seek safe harbor in areas with very rough seas, noting that sea travel is risky for all vessel types and tonnages. Operators of small seacrafts, including all types of motorbancas, were told not to venture out under rough sea conditions, especially if inexperienced or operating ill-equipped vessels. PAGASA also said a Gale Warning may be issued Monday afternoon over the northern seaboard of Northern Luzon due to the enhanced Northeast Monsoon.
Moderate Seas Farther South and West
Wave heights of up to 2.5 meters are forecast along the southern seaboard of Catanduanes, eastern seaboards of Albay and Sorsogon, northern seaboard of Northern Samar, eastern seaboards of Eastern Samar, Dinagat Islands, and Siargao-Bucas Grande Islands, as well as the remaining seaboards of La Union, Pangasinan, and Kalayaan Islands, according to PAGASA.
Seas of up to 2.0 meters are expected along the seaboards of Zambales, Lubang Islands, Palawan including Calamian, Cuyo and Cagayancillo Islands, Caluya Islands, Zamboanga del Norte, Surigao del Sur, the eastern seaboard of Davao Oriental, and surrounding areas. PAGASA advised operators of motorbancas and similarly sized vessels to take precautionary measures or avoid navigation under those conditions.
Public Advisory and Next Bulletin
PAGASA reminded the public that heavy rainfall and severe winds may still be experienced in localities outside the forecast confidence cone, and that the storm track may shift within that cone's limits. The public and local disaster risk reduction and management offices were advised to take all necessary protective measures.
Residents in areas susceptible to weather hazards were directed to follow evacuation orders and other instructions from local officials. PAGASA scheduled the next tropical cyclone bulletin for 5:00 PM on Monday, November 9, 2026.
Source: PAGASA/DOST