A powerful typhoon bearing down from the western Pacific is expected to cross into the Philippine Area of Responsibility as early as Tuesday morning, 20 October 2026, with gusty conditions expected over most of Luzon, the Visayas and parts of Mindanao from Wednesday and heavy rain over Extreme Northern Luzon. The Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) issued this warning in Tropical Cyclone Advisory No. 4 at 11:00 AM on Monday, 19 October 2026.
Storm Location and Current Intensity
At 10:00 AM Monday, PAGASA placed the center of Typhoon CHAMPI roughly 1,600 kilometres east of Southeastern Luzon, at coordinates 14.1°N, 139.0°E — well outside PAR. The agency reported maximum sustained winds of 175 km/h near the center, with gusts reaching 215 km/h and a central pressure of 945 hectopascals. Strong to typhoon-force winds extended outward as far as 720 kilometres from the center, and CHAMPI was tracking west-northwestward at a forward speed of 20 km/h at the time of the bulletin.
Domestic Name and Possible Super Typhoon Category
PAGASA said CHAMPI will be assigned the local name ROSAL once it crosses into PAR. Before that transition occurs, the agency warned that the storm could still intensify further, potentially reaching super typhoon classification. Wind Signals may be raised over parts of Luzon as early as Monday evening, the advisory stated.
Projected Track and Intensity Over the Next Five Days
According to PAGASA's 120-hour forecast, CHAMPI is expected to re-intensify over the coming day and a half. By 8:00 PM Tuesday, 20 October, the typhoon is projected to be 1,175 kilometres east of Northern Luzon, packing maximum sustained winds of 205 km/h — enough to qualify as a super typhoon — while still remaining outside PAR.
That 205 km/h intensity is projected to hold through 8:00 PM on Wednesday, 21 October, when PAGASA places the storm approximately 635 kilometres east of Basco, Batanes. A gradual weakening trend is then expected to set in from Wednesday onward after the typhoon reaches its peak.
By 8:00 AM Thursday, 22 October, the center is forecast 485 kilometres east of Basco, Batanes with winds easing to 195 km/h. The 96-hour position at 8:00 AM Friday, 23 October puts CHAMPI 350 kilometres east-northeast of Itbayat, Batanes at 175 km/h. At the end of the forecast window — 8:00 AM Saturday, 24 October — PAGASA projects the system 510 kilometres north of Itbayat, Batanes with winds of 155 km/h, tracking toward Taiwan and again outside PAR.
Wind Signal Warnings for Northern Luzon and Bicol
PAGASA said Wind Signals could be raised over northern and eastern parts of Northern Luzon and sections of the Bicol Region as early as Monday evening or Tuesday morning. The agency indicated that the highest expected Wind Signal under current projections is Wind Signal No. 3 or No. 4.
Gusty conditions are forecast to spread across most of Luzon and the Visayas, along with portions of Mindanao, by Wednesday, 21 October. Extreme Northern Luzon is also expected to receive heavy rainfall, and PAGASA said a separate Weather Advisory will be released ahead of those rains.
Rough to Hazardous Seas Anticipated Along Multiple Coastlines
PAGASA cautioned that moderate to rough seas may develop along the northern and eastern seaboards of Luzon and the eastern seaboards of the Visayas and Mindanao beginning Tuesday. Hazardous conditions — including very rough, high, or very high seas — are expected to affect Luzon's northern and eastern coastlines from Wednesday onward.
The agency said a Gale Warning for very rough seas is likely to be issued Tuesday evening or Wednesday morning. PAGASA urged the public and local disaster risk reduction and management offices to keep monitoring for updated bulletins.
Storm Expected to Remain Over the Philippine Sea
In its general outlook, PAGASA noted that ROSAL is projected to remain over the Philippine Sea throughout the forecast period as it moves toward Taiwan. Its forecast track keeps the center over the sea, though PAGASA still expects wind signals, gusty conditions and heavy rain over the land areas named in the advisory.
PAR Entry Timeline and Next Advisory
PAGASA projected PAR entry for CHAMPI on Tuesday morning or early Tuesday afternoon, 20 October 2026, at which point the storm will officially carry the name ROSAL. The agency's next scheduled advisory was set for 11:00 PM Monday, 19 October 2026, with the possibility of an earlier release should the storm's behaviour change significantly. The advisory was prepared by the PAGASA Weather Division at the Weather and Flood Forecasting Center in Quezon City and is available at bagong.pagasa.dost.gov.ph.
Source: breakingnewsnegror.com / PAGASA Tropical Cyclone Advisory No. 4, 19 October 2026