Severe Tropical Storm Gardo, known internationally as Higos, rapidly intensified after entering the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) on Thursday, June 25. The Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) reported that Gardo elevated from a tropical storm to a severe tropical storm within hours of its official designation. As of late Thursday evening, the storm was located approximately 1,275 kilometers east of extreme northern Luzon, charting a north-northwestward course at a brisk 30 kilometers per hour, with maximum sustained winds of 95 kilometers per hour near its core and gusts reaching up to 115 kilometers per hour.
While Gardo is not projected to make landfall or directly impact Philippine territory, its rapid development alongside the dissipating Tropical Storm Francisco underscores the Philippines' perennial vulnerability to extreme weather and the complex interplay of atmospheric systems. The simultaneous presence of these events serves as a timely reminder for communities to remain vigilant, particularly as the ongoing southwest monsoon, locally known as "Habagat," intensified by Francisco, continues to bring widespread rains and gusty conditions across major parts of the archipelago.
Despite its swift intensification, forecasters anticipate Gardo will remain a considerable distance from the Philippine landmass throughout its projected path. No tropical cyclone wind signals have been hoisted over any part of the country, offering a measure of relief to vulnerable communities. PAGASA projects Gardo to maintain its general northward trajectory and is expected to depart the PAR by Friday morning or afternoon. Following its exit from Philippine jurisdiction, the storm is anticipated to continue its northward journey, eventually heading towards southern Japan. While there remains a possibility of Gardo sustaining its severe tropical storm classification for the next 24 hours, weather specialists indicate a higher likelihood of it weakening back into a tropical storm by Friday afternoon or evening.
Meanwhile, Tropical Storm Francisco, which once roared as a super typhoon under its international name Mekkhala, has been steadily losing its formidable power as it made its way out of the Philippine Area of Responsibility. After impacting northern Luzon, particularly the provinces of Batanes and Cagayan, Francisco was expected to fully exit the PAR by Thursday afternoon or evening, or early Friday morning. By 8 p.m. on Thursday, it was already being monitored outside the PAR, having been downgraded to a severe tropical storm.
Earlier in the day, around 5 p.m. on Thursday, Francisco was located about 625 kilometers northeast of Itbayat, Batanes, moving north-northeastward at 15 kilometers per hour. Even in its diminished state as it pulled away from the country, it still packed maximum sustained winds of 95 kilometers per hour near its center and had gustiness of up to 115 kilometers per hour.
The receding influence of Francisco did not entirely spare the northern reaches of the country. Tropical Cyclone Wind Signal No. 1 remained in effect over Batanes even as the storm pulled away, indicating that the area could still experience minimal to minor impacts from strong winds. Throughout its passage, Francisco brought moderate to heavy rains over both Batanes and Cagayan, necessitating warnings against potential flooding and landslides in susceptible areas. Authorities advised residents in these regions to take precautionary measures and remain aware of local conditions.
The lingering effects of Francisco also contributed significantly to the enhancement of the southwest monsoon, or "Habagat." This monsoon system is responsible for scattered rains currently affecting the western sections of Luzon, including the sprawling capital region of Metro Manila, and extending into parts of the Visayas. The enhanced monsoon conditions underscore the interconnectedness of tropical cyclone activity and seasonal weather patterns in the Philippine archipelago.
Weather specialists from PAGASA have emphasized the importance of continuous monitoring, particularly with the ongoing southwest monsoon. The Habagat is expected to continue affecting Luzon and Visayas, bringing gusty conditions, especially over coastal and upland areas. Occasional rains are forecast for Zambales, Bataan, and Occidental Mindoro, areas already prone to monsoon-related precipitation.
Additionally, Metro Manila, Ilocos, Cordillera, CALABARZON, Western Visayas, and the rest of Cagayan Valley, Central Luzon, and MIMAROPA may experience mostly cloudy skies with scattered rains throughout the period. In Mindanao, the weather bureau forecasts thunderstorms that could bring heavy rains and strong winds, lasting up to an hour, predominantly in the afternoons. These conditions prompt persistent advisories for the public to remain vigilant against potential localized flooding and landslides, especially in areas identified as high-risk. Local disaster risk reduction and management councils across these regions are on alert, coordinating preparedness and response efforts.
The current weather events unfold against the backdrop of broader climatic patterns that regularly shape the Philippines’ rainy season. PAGASA had previously forecast that the country could experience between nine and 13 tropical cyclones entering or forming within its area of responsibility from July to December 2026. This long-term outlook includes a projection of two to four storms each in July and August, two to three in September, and one to two for each of the remaining months of the year, illustrating a consistently active storm season.
The weather bureau also highlighted a more than 60 percent chance of the prevailing El Niño phenomenon intensifying into a strong event by the August-September-October season. There is a further possibility of El Niño becoming very strong during the last quarter of 2026 through the first quarter of 2027. While El Niño typically brings drier conditions, tropical cyclone activity during the mid-year is still expected to be near normal, with these cyclones playing a crucial role in enhancing the southwest monsoon during the rainy season. However, a decrease in storm numbers is anticipated later in the year, coinciding with the period when stronger typhoons and super typhoons are more prone to making landfall, presenting a different set of challenges for disaster preparedness.
As Severe Tropical Storm Gardo veers away without a direct threat and Tropical Storm Francisco dissipates further over the open ocean, the immediate focus for Philippine authorities shifts to managing the prolonged impact of the southwest monsoon and preparing for the remainder of what is projected to be an active storm season. The dual presence of these systems, one intensifying and the other receding, serves as a stark reminder of the nation's constant vulnerability to nature's formidable forces, necessitating unwavering vigilance and adaptive preparedness from both government agencies and the populace. The lessons learned from Francisco's earlier intensity and Gardo's swift development reinforce the critical need for robust early warning systems and resilient community strategies in the face of an evolving global climate.