Tropical Depression Kiyapo officially formed late Wednesday evening, July 22, east of southeastern Luzon, prompting the immediate hoisting of Tropical Cyclone Wind Signal (TCWS) No. 1 over eastern portions of mainland Cagayan and Isabela. The Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) reported that as of 10 p.m., the cyclone’s center was estimated at 1,080 kilometers east of southeastern Luzon, packing maximum sustained winds of 45 kilometers per hour (km/h) near its core and gustiness reaching up to 55 km/h. Moving northwestward at a brisk 25 km/h, Kiyapo's strong winds extend outward up to 400 kilometers from its center.
This newly formed weather system, the eleventh tropical cyclone to enter the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) in 2026, underscores the persistent meteorological challenges facing the archipelago, a nation acutely vulnerable to tropical cyclones. The imposition of TCWS No. 1 signals that winds ranging from 39 to 61 km/h are anticipated within the next 36 hours in the affected areas, posing minimal to minor threats to communities and infrastructure. Residents are being urged to prepare for potential disruptions as the depression intensifies and draws closer.
Specifically, TCWS No. 1 has been issued for the eastern sections of mainland Cagayan, encompassing Santa Ana, Gonzaga, Lal-Lo, Gattaran, Baggao, Peñablanca, Santa Teresita, and Buguey. The same alert level covers the eastern portion of Isabela, including Maconacon, San Pablo, Cabagan, Tumauini, Ilagan City, Divilacan, Palanan, San Mariano, and Dinapigue. For these regions, the expected wind conditions could lead to minor damage to light structures, tilt banana plants, and cause minimal disruptions to transportation networks.
PAGASA’s latest forecast tracks Kiyapo on a west-northwestward to northwestward trajectory throughout the forecast period. There is a strong possibility of the tropical depression making a close approach to, or even making landfall over, the Babuyan Islands by Friday evening, July 24. However, meteorologists are also considering a potential landfall scenario over mainland Cagayan, emphasizing the need for continuous monitoring as the situation evolves.
The tropical depression is projected to gradually intensify as it traverses the Philippine Sea. Current models indicate the potential for Kiyapo to reach tropical storm category by Friday. Further intensification into a severe tropical storm is also considered possible before its anticipated approach to Northern Luzon. Kiyapo is forecast to exit the Philippine Area of Responsibility by Saturday morning or noon, July 25, though its remnants could still influence weather patterns.
Beyond the immediate wind threats, Kiyapo is expected to deliver significant rainfall across several regions. A heavy rainfall outlook from Thursday evening to Friday evening, July 24, forecasts 100-200 millimeters of rain for Cagayan. Areas such as Batanes, Isabela, Apayao, Kalinga, Abra, and Ilocos Norte are projected to receive 50-100 millimeters of rainfall. These volumes are substantial and heighten concerns regarding widespread flooding and landslides, particularly in mountainous terrains and low-lying communities already identified as highly susceptible to such hazards.
Compounding the threat posed by Kiyapo is the enhanced Southwest Monsoon, locally known as "Habagat." The interaction between the cyclone's periphery and the Habagat is expected to generate strong to gale-force gusts over various parts of the country. On Wednesday, these gusty conditions were already observed in Sarangani, Davao Occidental, and Davao Oriental. The strong winds are forecast to spread across most of Mindanao, Siquijor, Bohol, and Southern Leyte by Thursday, July 23. By Friday, July 24, a broader expanse of the Philippines, especially coastal and upland areas exposed to prevailing winds, could experience these strong to gale-force wind gusts.
Mariners have been issued stern warnings by PAGASA. A Gale Warning may be issued on Thursday over the seaboards of Extreme Northern Luzon. The agency strongly advises mariners, particularly those operating small seacrafts or ill-equipped vessels, to avoid venturing out to sea under these perilous conditions. This precautionary measure is critical in preventing maritime accidents, which historically tend to surge during periods of severe weather disturbances across the archipelago.
The potential for Kiyapo to intensify into a tropical storm carries with it the risk of escalating wind signals. Should it strengthen further, TCWS No. 2, where winds of 62 to 88 km/h are expected, or even TCWS No. 3, indicating winds of 89 to 117 km/h, could be raised. Such increases would correspond to light to moderate or moderate to heavy damage to infrastructure, respectively. Local government units and disaster risk reduction and management offices are maintaining high alert, continuously monitoring updates and preparing to implement necessary measures, including potential evacuations, to safeguard life and property. Residents in identified high-risk areas are urged to stay informed through official channels and adhere strictly to instructions from local authorities.
The anticipated weather conditions are not confined solely to the immediate vicinity of the cyclone's forecast track. Localities situated outside the direct path and the forecast confidence cone may still experience heavy rainfall and severe winds, underscoring the necessity of a comprehensive preparedness strategy that spans a wider geographic area. The weather bureau consistently reminds the public that while initial forecasts provide a general outline, the track of tropical cyclones can still shift, demanding continuous vigilance and adaptive responses from all stakeholders.
For Metro Manila, warm and humid weather characterized by isolated afternoon or evening thunderstorms is expected from Monday through Thursday. However, if Kiyapo moves closer to the country, wetter weather conditions could be expected from Friday to Sunday, serving as a reminder that even areas not directly under a wind signal can still experience the peripheral effects of a distant cyclone. The confluence of a developing tropical depression and an enhanced monsoon system presents a complex and dynamically evolving weather scenario for the Philippines in the coming days.
The formation of Tropical Depression Kiyapo, locally named using the Tagalog term for water cabbage or water lettuce, is part of PAGASA's established system to enhance public awareness and preparedness for these natural phenomena. The naming convention, a familiar fixture for Filipinos, aims to foster a clearer understanding of incoming weather threats, enabling communities to better internalize warnings and take timely precautions. As the eleventh such system this year, Kiyapo reinforces the cyclical reality of the Philippine typhoon season, a period of heightened alert and resilience for millions across the islands. The consistent stream of tropical cyclones demands perpetual vigilance and robust disaster management frameworks.
This persistent threat highlights the ongoing efforts by government agencies and local communities to refine early warning systems and implement effective disaster risk reduction strategies. Despite decades of experience, each new weather disturbance brings unique challenges, testing the preparedness and adaptability of a nation routinely confronted by the sheer force of nature. The interplay between Kiyapo's direct impact and its enhancement of the Southwest Monsoon creates a multi-faceted hazard that requires a layered response, extending from coastal communities to inland urban centers.
As Kiyapo continues its trek across the Philippine Sea, its potential for intensification and the broad reach of its associated rainfall and wind gusts mean that the coming days will be a critical period for preparedness. The confluence of an active tropical cyclone and an enhanced monsoon presents a complex and dynamic weather scenario, one that will demand unwavering attention and swift action from authorities and the public alike across the Philippines.