A powerful storm brewing over the Philippine Sea is on course to graze the edge of Philippine-monitored waters this weekend, with forecasters warning it could reach typhoon intensity before making a brief pass through the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) Sunday night.
According to the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA), Severe Tropical Storm CEMPAKA was located well east of extreme northern Luzon as of 10:00 AM Sunday, November 8, 2026, at coordinates 21.5°N, 138.4°E — roughly 1,720 kilometers from the Philippine coastline and still outside the PAR.
Storm Strength and Position as of Sunday Morning
PAGASA reported that the storm had maximum sustained winds of 110 kilometers per hour near its center, with gusts of up to 135 km/h and a central pressure of 990 hectopascals. The wind field extended as far as 380 kilometers outward from the center. CEMPAKA was moving westward at 25 km/h at the time of the advisory.
PAGASA issued Tropical Cyclone Advisory No. 2 at 11:00 AM Sunday, noting the storm was holding its strength and proceeding along its forecast track.
PAR Entry Expected Sunday Evening; Local Name SAMUEL to Be Used
PAGASA said CEMPAKA is forecast to enter the PAR between Sunday evening and early Monday morning, November 9. Upon crossing into Philippine-monitored waters, the storm will be assigned the local name SAMUEL.
The agency added that the cyclone's stay within the PAR will be short-lived. CEMPAKA is expected to shift to a north-northeastward track by Monday afternoon or evening and exit through the PAR's northeastern boundary shortly thereafter.
Rapid Intensification Then Gradual Decline Forecast
PAGASA's 96-hour track and intensity outlook shows the storm rapidly gaining strength before peaking and then gradually weakening beginning Tuesday, November 10.
By 8:00 PM Sunday — the 12-hour forecast mark — CEMPAKA is projected to reach typhoon-category winds of 130 km/h while still approximately 1,485 km east of extreme northern Luzon, moving west-northwest at 25 km/h and remaining outside the PAR.
At 8:00 AM Monday, November 9, the storm is forecast to be 1,335 km east-northeast of extreme northern Luzon with winds climbing to 140 km/h, moving northwest at 15 km/h, according to PAGASA's advisory.
By 8:00 PM Monday — the 36-hour mark — CEMPAKA is expected to peak at 155 km/h sustained winds while positioned 1,375 km east-northeast of extreme northern Luzon, drifting slowly north-northeastward.
At 8:00 AM Tuesday, November 10, the storm is projected at 1,615 km east-northeast of extreme northern Luzon, still carrying 155 km/h winds and moving east-northeast at 20 km/h, back outside the PAR.
By 8:00 PM Tuesday, PAGASA forecasts a slight drop to 150 km/h, with the center 1,995 km east-northeast of extreme northern Luzon, accelerating east-northeast at 30 km/h.
At 8:00 AM Wednesday, November 11, sustained winds are forecast at 130 km/h with the storm 2,435 km east-northeast of extreme northern Luzon, moving east-northeast at 35 km/h.
The 96-hour projection — 8:00 AM Thursday, November 12 — places CEMPAKA at 3,015 km east-northeast of extreme northern Luzon with winds reduced to 95 km/h, downgraded to severe tropical storm category, moving east-northeast at 25 km/h.
No Landfall Anticipated; Storm Stays Over Open Sea
PAGASA confirmed that CEMPAKA is expected to remain over the Philippine Sea for the duration of its forecast period and will not directly affect weather or sea conditions across the country.
The agency noted, however, that the Northeast Monsoon will independently generate moderate to rough seas along the seaboards of Northern and Central Luzon within 24 hours of the advisory's issuance.
Very Rough Seas Possible Along Northern Luzon Coasts Starting Tuesday
PAGASA warned that very rough sea conditions may develop along Northern Luzon's seaboards beginning Tuesday, November 10, as CEMPAKA intensifies offshore. The agency said a Gale Warning may be issued as early as Monday, November 9.
Mariners and fishing vessels operating near the seaboards of Northern and Central Luzon were advised by PAGASA to take precautionary measures ahead of worsening sea conditions.
Next Update Due at 11:00 PM Sunday
PAGASA said Advisory No. 2 remains valid for broadcast until the next scheduled issuance at 11:00 PM on Sunday, November 8, unless an intermediate bulletin is released sooner. DOST-PAGASA urged the public and concerned disaster risk reduction and management offices to continue monitoring official updates on the tropical cyclone.
Source: DOST-PAGASA