DUMAGUETE CITY, Negros Oriental — June 25, 2026 — Residents across Negros Oriental, from the busy port of Dumaguete to the coastal towns of Bayawan, Bais, and Guihulngan, should prepare for a wet and at times stormy Thursday. The state weather bureau PAGASA is forecasting partly cloudy to at times cloudy skies with rainshowers and thunderstorms over the Visayas region, with southwest winds generating moderate coastal swells that will affect inter-island travel and small-boat fishing operations throughout the day.
The regional forecast was issued by PAGASA at 5:00 PM on June 24, 2026, with an extended weather outlook issued separately at 9:00 AM on June 24, 2026. These remain the most current official forecasts available for the Visayas region, including Negros Oriental and the nearby island province of Siquijor.
What Is Driving This Weather?
PAGASA's forecast data identifies southwest winds as the dominant wind pattern over the Visayas at this time. This points to the influence of the southwest monsoon, locally known as habagat — a seasonal wind system that typically arrives over the Philippines between June and September, drawing warm, moisture-laden air from the Indian Ocean and the South China Sea across the archipelago.
In plain terms, the habagat acts like a pump that continuously feeds moisture into the atmosphere over the Visayas. As that warm, wet air rises, it cools, condenses into clouds, and produces the intermittent rainshowers and thunderstorms that residents of Negros Oriental are likely to experience on Thursday — particularly during the afternoon and early evening hours, when daytime heat amplifies the instability in the atmosphere.
This pattern is entirely normal for the last week of June and is expected to persist through the coming days, according to PAGASA's extended outlook.
Conditions in Negros Oriental and Visayas Today
For Thursday, June 25, PAGASA forecasts the following conditions for the Visayas region:
- Sky conditions: Partly cloudy to at times cloudy, with rainshowers or thunderstorms
- Temperature range: 26°C (low) to 32°C (high)
- Wind direction: Southwest
- Wind speed: Light to moderate
- Coastal condition: Slight to moderate
In practical terms, residents of Dumaguete City, Bayawan, Bais, Guihulngan, and the island province of Siquijor can expect a mix of partly sunny periods and cloudy stretches throughout the day, punctuated by sudden rainshowers or isolated thunderstorms — most likely in the afternoon. Mornings may start relatively fair, but conditions can change quickly, so carrying an umbrella or rain gear is strongly advised.
Across the Tañon Strait, which separates Negros Oriental from southern Cebu, and across the waters between Dumaguete and Siquijor, slight to moderate coastal swells are expected as a result of the prevailing southwest winds. Passengers traveling on ferry routes — including those served by OceanJet, Aleson Shipping, and other operators connecting Dumaguete to Cebu City, Tagbilaran, and Siquijor — should check departure schedules before heading to the port, as sea conditions may cause delays or schedule adjustments.
What It Means for You: Practical Guidance by Sector
Ferries and Inter-Island Travel
PAGASA forecasts slight to moderate coastal conditions along Visayas waters on Thursday, driven by southwest winds at light to moderate speeds. Passengers booked on OceanJet or other fast craft services between Dumaguete and Siquijor, or on longer routes to Cebu, should arrive at the port early and confirm with their shipping line whether sailings are proceeding as scheduled. Rough moments are possible, particularly in open-water crossings. Those prone to seasickness should take precautions. Larger vessels are generally less affected by slight to moderate swells, but smaller fast craft may experience more motion.
Fisherfolk and Small-Boat Operators
For fisherfolk operating small bancas and motorized fishing boats along the coasts of Negros Oriental — including those working the waters off Bais Bay, the coastline near Bayawan, and the channels around Siquijor — moderate coastal swells combined with the possibility of sudden thunderstorms present a genuine safety concern. PAGASA advises caution on open waters when southwest winds are at moderate strength. Thunderstorms can develop rapidly in the afternoon, bringing gusty winds and reduced visibility with little warning. Small-boat operators are strongly urged to head back to shore before noon and to monitor conditions closely before venturing out again.
Farmers and Agricultural Workers
For farmers in the lowland and upland areas of Negros Oriental — particularly those growing sugarcane, corn, vegetables, and root crops in the municipalities of Guihulngan, La Libertad, Tayasan, and the Manjuyod plains — today's forecast brings both a concern and an opportunity. The intermittent rainshowers associated with the southwest monsoon provide natural irrigation, which may benefit crops currently in their growing phase. However, thunderstorms can bring locally heavy and sudden downpours that may cause surface flooding in low-lying agricultural areas. Farmers should avoid working in open fields during thunderstorms due to the risk of lightning. Harvest activities should be scheduled for the morning hours when conditions are more likely to be fair.
Commuters and the General Public
For daily commuters in Dumaguete City and other urban centers in Negros Oriental, the main concern is the unpredictability of afternoon thunderstorms. Rain can begin suddenly and intensify quickly, causing flooding in low-lying streets and reduced visibility on roads. Commuters traveling by motorcycle or bicycle — and those who walk to work or school — should carry rain gear and plan to leave earlier in the afternoon if possible to avoid the peak thunderstorm window, which typically falls between 1:00 PM and 6:00 PM during southwest monsoon season.
Students, Parents, and Schools
Parents sending children to school on Thursday should ensure students carry raincoats or umbrellas. While the forecast does not indicate extreme or sustained rainfall that would warrant school suspensions under normal circumstances, sudden heavy downpours from afternoon thunderstorms can make after-school travel difficult. Parents picking up children in the afternoon should monitor developing weather and factor in extra travel time. School administrators in coastal barangays of Negros Oriental should keep an eye on local conditions throughout the day.
Outdoor Workers and Event Organizers
Construction workers, road crews, and others in outdoor occupations should plan their heaviest tasks for the morning hours and be prepared to halt work during thunderstorms, particularly given the risk of lightning in open areas. Any outdoor public events scheduled for Thursday afternoon in Dumaguete or elsewhere in Negros Oriental should have contingency plans for rain or consider moving indoor-outdoor elements earlier in the day.
What to Expect for the Rest of the Week
According to PAGASA's extended weather outlook — issued at 9:00 AM on June 24, 2026 — similar conditions are forecast to continue across the Visayas through the end of the week:
- Wednesday (already passed) through Thursday: Moderate southwest winds; slight to moderate coastal conditions; temperature range 26°C–32°C
- Friday: Light to moderate winds, direction shifting from southwest toward southeast; slight to moderate coastal conditions; temperatures 27°C–32°C
- Saturday: Continued southwest to southeast winds at light to moderate speeds; slight to moderate coastal conditions; temperatures 27°C–32°C (based on available extended outlook data)
The gradual shift in wind direction from purely southwest toward a southwest-to-southeast orientation by Friday and Saturday may indicate a slight moderation in the intensity of the southwest monsoon's influence over the weekend, though rainshowers and thunderstorms are still likely given the time of year.
No Tropical Cyclone Warning Signals in Effect for Negros Oriental
It is worth noting that while PAGASA's navigation menu indicates active tropical cyclone advisories and bulletins are currently in circulation for some part of the Philippines, the Visayas regional forecast does not place Negros Oriental or the broader Visayas under any tropical cyclone wind signal based on the data available in this forecast. Residents are nonetheless advised to keep monitoring official PAGASA updates, as tropical cyclone situations can evolve rapidly during the June-to-November typhoon season.
Important: This weather article is based on PAGASA's Visayas Regional Forecast issued at 5:00 PM, June 24, 2026, and the Extended Weather Outlook issued at 9:00 AM, June 24, 2026. Conditions may change. Always refer to the latest official PAGASA forecast for the most up-to-date information.
Bottom Line
The single most important thing you should do today, Thursday, June 25, is carry rain gear and complete any outdoor tasks — including fishing, farming, and travel — before the early afternoon. Thunderstorms are possible, especially from midday onward, and coastal swells are moderate enough to warrant caution for small-boat operators and ferry passengers. Check your shipping line before heading to the Dumaguete port. If you're caught outside when a thunderstorm develops, seek sturdy shelter immediately and stay away from open ground, tall trees, and metal structures until the storm passes.
Monitor official PAGASA updates at pagasa.dost.gov.ph.