The Philippines marked the 10th anniversary of its landmark arbitral victory over China in the South China Sea, rallying a formidable coalition of international support as Beijing reiterated its outright rejection of the ruling. Fourteen countries joined Manila in a forceful joint statement, reaffirming the 2016 Permanent Court of Arbitration award as "final, legally binding, and definitive," a clear stand against China's persistent assertion of sovereignty over nearly the entire strategic waterway.
This anniversary serves as a critical juncture in the escalating geopolitical contest for influence in the Indo-Pacific, highlighting the profound tension between international law and military might. The persistent defiance by a major power threatens the rules-based global order, impacts freedom of navigation crucial for global trade, and directly affects the livelihoods of countless individuals reliant on the disputed waters.
In a powerful display of solidarity, Australia, Canada, Estonia, Germany, Italy, Japan, Latvia, Lithuania, New Zealand, Romania, Slovenia, the United Kingdom, the United States, and the Philippines issued a collective statement. This coalition emphasized a shared commitment to a "free and open Indo-Pacific that is peaceful, stable, and rules-based," underscoring the critical importance of upholding freedom of navigation and overflight, as guaranteed under the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS).
Separately, the 27-nation European Union issued its own strong declaration, echoing the sentiments of the joint statement. The EU described the 2016 arbitral award as a "landmark decision in the peaceful settlement of disputes" that "must be respected and fully implemented by the parties involved." The bloc reaffirmed its "unwavering commitment to UNCLOS," which it considers the universal legal framework governing activities in the oceans and seas.
Expressing deep concern over the "steady increase of tensions and dangerous incidents" in the South China Sea, the EU firmly opposed "any unilateral actions that threaten to undermine regional stability and the international order." For the Philippines, these international endorsements represent a crucial validation of its strategy to leverage international law and multilateral diplomacy in confronting a significantly more powerful claimant.
Philippine Foreign Secretary Maria Theresa Lazaro eloquently described the 2016 ruling as a "lighthouse," a fixed point of international law necessary when "waters grow turbulent, when unilateral claims cloud the horizon and when the shadow of coercion looms." Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. recently reaffirmed his country's commitment to the ruling, declaring that "right is not defined by might" and that international law, not military or economic power, must govern maritime disputes.
However, despite the unequivocal verdict from The Hague, China has consistently dismissed the ruling as "illegal, null and void," refusing to acknowledge its jurisdiction or comply with its findings. Beijing maintains its claims based on "historic rights," a notion that the tribunal explicitly ruled had no legal basis under UNCLOS, framing the decade since the ruling with continued confrontations.
The reality on the ground, or rather, at sea, paints a starker picture for many Filipinos. Ten years on, fishermen in coastal communities like Masinloc report little has changed in their daily struggle for livelihood. They continue to face harassment and obstruction from Chinese vessels around traditional fishing grounds like Scarborough Shoal, which remains under China's de facto control since a 2012 standoff.
Accounts from fishermen like Henrilito Epoc, who now avoids the shoal after years of encounters with Chinese vessels, reveal the ongoing challenges. "We never truly felt the impact of that win... From our perspective, the harassment and pressure from the Chinese Coast Guard has only gotten worse," Epoc stated, highlighting the disconnect between legal affirmation and practical access.
This on-the-ground reality underscores the complexities of enforcing international legal rulings in the face of a defiant major power. While the tribunal ruled that China's restrictions on fishing at Scarborough Shoal were unlawful, Beijing continues to assert control, employing tactics that include water cannons and dangerous maneuvers against Philippine vessels.
Philippine Defense Secretary Gilberto Teodoro, in a statement released Saturday, joined the Filipino community in celebrating the 10th anniversary, calling the award a "landmark ruling that affirmed the Philippines' rights and entitlements in its Exclusive Economic Zone." He advocated for countering Beijing's continued aggression through diplomatic means while simultaneously building deterrence with the help of allies, reflecting the Philippines' current dual approach.
Adding to the complexities, recent weeks have seen Chinese government-affiliated scholars make contentious claims regarding the Batanes islands, north of Luzon, arguing they are a "natural geographical extension of Taiwan" and historically linked to China. Manila has strongly rejected such claims, viewing them as another attempt to expand Beijing's territorial ambitions.
The 2016 ruling by the Permanent Court of Arbitration in The Hague explicitly found China's expansive claims over nearly the entire South China Sea, including areas within the Philippines' Exclusive Economic Zone, to have no legal basis under UNCLOS. Manila officially observes July 12 as "West Philippine Sea Victory Day," referring to the areas within its EEZ that fall within the disputed waters. Despite the tribunal's findings that China's restrictions on fishing at Scarborough Shoal were unlawful, the waters of the South China Sea have remained turbulent, characterized by China's steadfast rejection of the verdict and continued operational assertiveness.
The widespread international support garnered on this 10th anniversary reinforces the global consensus that unilateral actions and disregard for established legal frameworks pose a threat to regional stability and the broader international order. The EU, for instance, reiterated its support for ongoing efforts by ASEAN and China to conclude an effective, substantive, and legally binding Code of Conduct in the South China Sea that aligns with UNCLOS. However, China has previously insisted that the 2016 arbitral ruling should not influence these negotiations, creating a significant hurdle for any meaningful progress.
The coming years will undoubtedly test the resolve of the Philippines and its expanding network of allies to uphold the arbitral award's principles against persistent challenges from Beijing. This global consensus underscores the enduring struggle for a rules-based order, determining whether the "lighthouse" of international law can truly guide the volatile waters of the South China Sea toward lasting peace and stability.