QUEZON CITY, June 16, 2026 — Weather bureau PAGASA has placed the entire Philippine archipelago on alert for scattered thunderstorms Tuesday, warning that communities in flood-prone and mountainous areas face the risk of flash floods and landslides should severe weather develop in their vicinity. The advisory was contained in the agency's 24-hour public weather forecast released at 4:00 AM on June 16.
The Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) clarified that no typhoon or low-pressure area is currently threatening the country. Rather, two separate weather mechanisms are driving the unsettled conditions: easterly winds carrying moisture from the Pacific Ocean into the eastern sections of Visayas and Mindanao, and localized convective thunderstorm activity responsible for rain across the rest of the Philippines — a combination consistent with the country's transition from the dry season to the wet season.
Despite the absence of a major weather disturbance, PAGASA's explicit hazard warning over flash floods and landslides means that residents living near rivers, in low-lying areas, and on slopes or hillsides should remain vigilant throughout the day and avoid complacency.
General Weather Picture
Broadly speaking, the weather profile is consistent across the country: partly cloudy to cloudy skies punctuated by isolated rain showers or thunderstorms at different times of the day. The distinguishing factor between regions is the source of the rainfall. The eastern portions of Visayas and Mindanao are directly exposed to easterly winds — warm, moisture-heavy currents originating from the Pacific — while the rest of the country, Metro Manila included, will see rain produced by localized convection, where daytime heat and humidity accumulate until they discharge as thunderstorms, typically in the afternoon or evening hours.
In practical terms, most Filipinos can expect relatively clear mornings giving way to cloudy skies and a higher likelihood of rain showers or thunderstorms by midday and into the night. Travel, outdoor work, and daily commutes — particularly in urban centres prone to street flooding — may be disrupted, according to PAGASA's forecast.
Luzon
Metro Manila and all provinces throughout Luzon are forecast to experience partly cloudy to cloudy skies, with isolated rain showers or thunderstorms fuelled by localized thunderstorm development rather than any large-scale weather system, PAGASA said.
Residents in the National Capital Region, CALABARZON, Central Luzon, the Ilocos Region, Cagayan Valley, the Cordillera Administrative Region, MIMAROPA, and the Bicol Region should be prepared for sudden, intense downpours — especially during the peak heat of the afternoon. These bursts of heavy rain can trigger localised street flooding and drastically reduce visibility on major roads and highways.
PAGASA specifically flagged the risk of flash floods and landslides accompanying severe thunderstorms. Mountainous provinces including Benguet, Mountain Province, Ifugao, Nueva Vizcaya, and the highland communities of the Bicol Region are urged to monitor conditions closely and follow guidance from local government units and disaster risk reduction offices.
Winds across Luzon will blow from the southeast to southwest at light to moderate speeds. Coastal waters surrounding Luzon are expected to be slight to moderate, with wave heights forecast between 0.6 and 1.8 meters. PAGASA advised mariners and fishing communities to exercise the usual caution and check sea conditions before departing port.
Visayas
A split forecast applies to the Visayas on Tuesday. Eastern Visayas — covering the provinces of Samar, Eastern Samar, Northern Samar, Leyte, Southern Leyte, and Biliran — will see partly cloudy to cloudy skies with isolated rain showers or thunderstorms driven directly by the easterly winds pushing in from the Pacific, according to PAGASA.
The remaining Visayas provinces — comprising Western Visayas (Region VI) and Central Visayas (Region VII), including Iloilo, Capiz, Aklan, Antique, Guimaras, Negros Occidental, Cebu, Bohol, Negros Oriental, and Siquijor — will also experience partly cloudy to cloudy conditions with isolated rain showers or thunderstorms. In their case, however, the rain is generated by localized convective activity rather than the easterlies.
The hazard advisory applies equally to both zones: severe thunderstorms may produce flash floods and landslides anywhere in the region. Residents of Eastern Visayas — a region with a documented history of vulnerability to heavy rainfall — are particularly encouraged to keep abreast of updates through local PAGASA bulletins and to coordinate with their local disaster risk reduction and management offices.
Winds over Visayas will come from the southeast to southwest at light to moderate intensity. Coastal wave heights around Visayas waters are projected at 0.6 to 1.8 meters, with sea conditions described as slight to moderate.
Mindanao
Along Mindanao's eastern seaboard, the provinces of Dinagat Islands, Surigao del Norte, Surigao del Sur, and Davao Oriental are under the more pronounced influence of the easterly winds, PAGASA noted. These areas can expect partly cloudy to cloudy skies with isolated rain showers or thunderstorms throughout the day, sustained by the continuous inflow of Pacific moisture.
The remainder of Mindanao — including provinces within the Davao Region (outside of Davao Oriental), Northern Mindanao, the Zamboanga Peninsula, SOCCSKSARGEN, and the Bangsamoro Autonomous Region in Muslim Mindanao (BARMM) — will also have partly cloudy to cloudy skies and isolated rain showers or thunderstorms, this time driven by localized thunderstorm development.
PAGASA warned that severe thunderstorms across any part of Mindanao carry the potential to cause flash floods and landslides. Provinces on the eastern coast — particularly Surigao del Sur and Davao Oriental — face heightened exposure given their direct contact with the easterlies, which can maintain rainfall activity for extended periods throughout the day.
Winds over Mindanao will blow from the east to northeast at light to moderate speeds — a slight variation from the southeast-to-southwest pattern prevailing over Luzon and Visayas. Coastal waters around Mindanao are forecast to be slight to moderate, with wave heights ranging from 0.6 to 1.2 meters.
Temperature and Humidity Readings
Reference temperature data recorded at PAGASA's Science Garden weather station in Diliman, Quezon City, captures the warm and muggy conditions characteristic of this period. For the 24-hour period ending at 8:00 PM on Monday, June 15, the station logged a maximum temperature of 31.0°C at 2:00 PM and a minimum of 26.0°C at 6:30 AM.
Relative humidity during the same period swung from a high of 91 percent — indicating near-saturated air — down to a low of 64 percent. These figures, PAGASA's data shows, reflect the oppressively humid environment that serves as the engine for afternoon thunderstorm formation across the Philippine lowlands.
While the Science Garden figures are specific to Metro Manila, they broadly represent conditions across much of the country's low-lying areas at this time of year. PAGASA reminds the public to drink sufficient water during outdoor activities and to immediately seek shelter when dark clouds gather and thunder becomes audible.
Astronomical Data and Manila Bay Tides
For Metro Manila on June 16, PAGASA reports that sunrise is at 5:27 AM and sunset at 6:26 PM. The moon — at only 3 percent illumination and effectively a new moon — rose at 6:18 AM and will set at 7:53 PM. The near-total absence of moonlight means nighttime conditions will be especially dark, posing an added concern for communities with limited street lighting during evening thunderstorms.
Tidal data from the National Mapping and Resource Information Authority (NAMRIA) for Manila Bay shows a high tide of 1.54 meters at 9:56 AM and a low tide of -0.32 meters at 6:52 PM. Coastal communities around Manila Bay are advised to factor in these tidal levels, particularly in combination with potential storm surge or heavy surface runoff that may accompany any severe thunderstorm activity during the day.
PAGASA continues to monitor atmospheric conditions and encourages the public to check for updated bulletins throughout Tuesday as weather patterns can shift rapidly during thunderstorm season.
Source: Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) / wire reports