The southwest monsoon, or habagat, will bring heavy rainfall over Negros Oriental and wide portions of Luzon and the Visayas on Saturday, July 11, 2026, as Typhoon Inday (international name: Bavi) begins moving away from the country, the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) said.
In Weather Advisory No. 19, issued at 5 a.m. Saturday, PAGASA said the monsoon — still enhanced by the outer circulation of Typhoon Inday — is expected to deliver 50 to 100 millimeters of rainfall over Negros Oriental within the day, alongside dozens of other provinces across the country.
Negros Oriental Among Provinces Under 50–100mm Rainfall Watch
PAGASA's advisory placed Negros Oriental in the same rainfall band as a broad swath of the Philippine archipelago, covering Metro Manila, the provinces of Pangasinan, Benguet, Tarlac, Pampanga, Bulacan, Rizal, Cavite, Laguna, Batangas, Oriental Mindoro, Romblon, Palawan, Aklan, Capiz, Iloilo, Guimaras, and Negros Occidental, among others.
The 50 to 100 mm rainfall forecast represents potentially heavy to intense rain within a 24-hour period — enough to trigger flooding in low-lying areas and landslides in elevated and mountainous terrain. PAGASA specifically warned that actual rainfall may be higher in upland and mountainous areas, and that risks are compounded by significant antecedent rainfall from the previous several days.
Hardest-Hit Areas: Zambales, Bataan, Occidental Mindoro, and Antique
The most severe rainfall — between 100 and 200 millimeters within the day — is forecast for Zambales, Bataan, Occidental Mindoro, and Antique, according to PAGASA's advisory. These provinces, situated along the western coastline facing the South China Sea, bear the direct brunt of the enhanced habagat.
The state weather bureau said the monsoon's intensity is still being amplified by the outer circulation of Typhoon Inday, even as the storm tracks away from Philippine landmass.
Typhoon Inday Exits PAR, Heads Toward Taiwan and China
As of 2 a.m. Saturday, Typhoon Inday was located 480 kilometers northeast of Itbayat, Batanes, packing maximum sustained winds of 140 kilometers per hour and gusts of up to 170 km/h. The typhoon was moving northwestward at 20 km/h.
PAGASA said Inday is not expected to make landfall anywhere in the Philippines and is forecast to exit the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) on Saturday. The typhoon is projected to head toward Taiwan and southern Japan before making landfall over mainland China on Sunday, July 12.
Inday is the ninth tropical cyclone to enter or develop within the PAR so far in 2026, and the second for the month of July, according to PAGASA records.
Heavy Rain Forecast to Persist Through the Weekend and Into Monday
The rainfall pattern is expected to continue well beyond Saturday, with PAGASA's extended outlook maintaining widespread heavy rain across multiple days.
For Sunday, July 12, PAGASA placed Occidental Mindoro, Zambales, and Bataan again under the 100 to 200 mm bracket. Much of Central and Southern Luzon and the western Visayas — a region that includes areas near and around Negros — will remain under a 50 to 100 mm forecast.
By Monday, July 13, the heaviest rainfall narrows to Zambales and Bataan, while the 50 to 100 mm band extends across the Ilocos provinces, the Cordillera Administrative Region, Central Luzon, Metro Manila, the CALABARZON region, and Occidental Mindoro.
Flooding and Landslides Remain a Serious Threat
PAGASA explicitly warned that flooding and rain-induced landslides remain likely in vulnerable areas throughout the forecast period. The weather bureau noted that communities already saturated by days of prior rainfall face heightened risk, as even moderate additional rain can push soil and drainage systems beyond capacity.
Residents in low-lying coastal areas, riverbanks, and communities near slopes and hillsides are advised to remain alert and heed instructions from local authorities.
LDRRMOs Directed to Prepare; Public Reminded on Warning System
PAGASA directed local disaster risk reduction and management offices (LDRRMOs) to take all necessary measures to protect life and property in their respective areas in light of the forecast hazardous weather conditions.
The weather bureau also issued an important reminder to the public regarding how its warning system works: a Weather Advisory covers a broad 24-hour, provincial-level outlook, while decisions on class or work suspensions should be based on the shorter-range, municipal-level Heavy Rainfall Warnings issued by PAGASA's Regional Services Divisions — not the general advisory alone.
PAGASA said the next advisory will be issued at 11 a.m. Saturday, July 11, unless significant changes in the situation occur beforehand.
By the Numbers
- 100–200 mm: Forecast rainfall for Zambales, Bataan, Occidental Mindoro, and Antique on Saturday, July 11
- 50–100 mm: Forecast rainfall for Negros Oriental and dozens of other provinces on Saturday, July 11
- 480 km: Distance of Typhoon Inday from Itbayat, Batanes, as of 2 a.m. Saturday
- 140 km/h: Maximum sustained winds of Typhoon Inday
- 170 km/h: Peak gusts of Typhoon Inday
- 20 km/h: Speed at which Inday is moving northwestward
- 9th: Typhoon Inday's ranking as the ninth tropical cyclone within PAR in 2026
- July 12: Projected date of Inday's landfall over mainland China
Why This Matters
Although Typhoon Inday is exiting the Philippine Area of Responsibility without making landfall, its outer circulation continues to fuel a potent habagat that threatens a large portion of the country — including Negros Oriental — with significant rainfall through at least Monday, July 13. PAGASA's warning of compounded risk from prior rainfall makes flooding and landslides a real and immediate danger for vulnerable communities. Residents and local governments must act on official warnings promptly, as the multi-day duration of the hazard extends the window of risk well beyond a single weather event.
Photo credit: Photo courtesy of PAGASA